Assuming we’re in a roughly neutral political environment doesn’t make sense given the history of the midterms, $4.50 gas or Trump’s dismal approval ratings.

But mostly, they were extremely persistent, a word used multiple times in OpenAI’s own account of the incident. Like the ...

No, I’m not sure why the NFL is starting its season on a Wednesday. But I won’t complain because it should be a hell of a lot more fun than watching the Republican midterm convention. The NFL is back ...

This has been one of those weeks when it feels like everything Silver Bulletin covers is happening at once. Democrats have continued to have a very good run of polling since Labor Day, with our Senate ...

The first official episode of Still Counting is out! Clare, Galen, and I discussed the most competitive Senate races, the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, Trump’s standing within the Republican ...

We’re approaching Labor Day — which has traditionally been considered the “real” starting point of midterm election campaigns. You’ll often hear a narrative that goes something like this: voters only ...

I teased this last week, but I wanted to officially share the good news that I’m starting a podcast with my former FiveThirtyEight colleagues Galen Druke and Clare Malone. The podcast, Still Counting, ...

Back at the OG version of FiveThirtyEight.com in 2008, we ran a daily feature called “Today’s Polls”. It was pretty simple: basically a table of every poll that had entered our database in the past 24 ...

However, this is one of those cases where the headline doesn’t tell the whole story. A 1- or 2-point win for El-Sayed would be much narrower than the results predicted by polls; the last seven surveys ...

Our midterms model, which we’re now calling FLIPR 🐬 — Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings — launched today! There’s a lot of detail both on the model landing page and in the ...