So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s … overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been ...

Democrats have been on incredible upswing over the past month. The entered September with a generic congressional ballot lead of D +6.7. As of today, they’re up to D +8.1. That’s a high point for the ...

Donald Trump has yet again hit an all-time approval rating low. As of today, his net approval is sitting at -22.4. This far into his first term, Trump was all the way up at -11.6, while Joe Biden was ...

The ELWAY and QBERT updates are in for the week. ELWAY already really liked the Bills, and a win over “my” Detroit Lions last Thursday further helps their rating. Beyond that, we’re getting to the ...

This is the landing page for QBERT. As with our other landing pages, it’s best viewed on the web rather than over email or in the Substack App. The charts and tables will be updated regularly, and ...

They have massive amounts of outside spending, but their candidates are consistently being outraised by Democrats.

Inflation in fuel prices is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states — which happen to coincide with competitive Senate races.

Assuming we’re in a roughly neutral political environment doesn’t make sense given the history of the midterms, $4.50 gas or Trump’s dismal approval ratings.

Among Americans overall, 63 percent say there’s at least a “moderate risk” of AI destroying humanity, versus just 22 percent ...

Nate's podcast with Clare Malone and Galen Druke.