So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s … overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been ...

Democrats have been on incredible upswing over the past month. The entered September with a generic congressional ballot lead of D +6.7. As of today, they’re up to D +8.1. That’s a high point for the ...

Donald Trump has yet again hit an all-time approval rating low. As of today, his net approval is sitting at -22.4. This far into his first term, Trump was all the way up at -11.6, while Joe Biden was ...

They have massive amounts of outside spending, but their candidates are consistently being outraised by Democrats.

Inflation in fuel prices is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states — which happen to coincide with competitive Senate races.

Assuming we’re in a roughly neutral political environment doesn’t make sense given the history of the midterms, $4.50 gas or Trump’s dismal approval ratings.