Assuming we’re in a roughly neutral political environment doesn’t make sense given the history of the midterms, $4.50 gas or Trump’s dismal approval ratings.

This has been one of those weeks when it feels like everything Silver Bulletin covers is happening at once. Democrats have continued to have a very good run of polling since Labor Day, with our Senate ...

But mostly, they were extremely persistent, a word used multiple times in OpenAI’s own account of the incident. Like the ...

No, I’m not sure why the NFL is starting its season on a Wednesday. But I won’t complain because it should be a hell of a lot more fun than watching the Republican midterm convention. The NFL is back ...

I teased this last week, but I wanted to officially share the good news that I’m starting a podcast with my former FiveThirtyEight colleagues Galen Druke and Clare Malone. The podcast, Still Counting, ...

In case you missed it, we launched our 2026 election forecast — now named FLIPR — on Tuesday. On balance, the model is bullish on Democrats’ chances in November. But while it currently rates the House ...

Our midterms model, which we’re now calling FLIPR 🐬 — Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings — launched today! There’s a lot of detail both on the model landing page and in the ...

One mode we sometimes use at Silver Bulletin is “Nate’s bad tweets, explained.” (Here’s an example.) But when I expressed my frustration with California’s incredibly slow vote-counting process earlier ...

Before we get into the meat of today’s newsletter, two quick plugs: I’ll be doing a live show with my former FiveThirtyEight colleagues, Galen Druke and Clare Malone, this Wednesday (5/13) at 6 PM at ...

I needed a break today from writing about Iran, Trump, and/or basketball, so let’s talk about another of my favorite topics: social media. However, I will be conducting a Substack Live with Galen ...