We construct a new high-frequency measure of risk appetite shifts around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, the common component of changes in risk-sensitive indicators. Fed policy actions ...

Following decades of secular decline, many estimates of r∗—the natural or steady-state short-term real interest rate—have risen roughly 1 percentage point since 2020 in the United States. The most ...

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of ...

Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been ...

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research ...

Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) reported either using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), revealing a rapidly evolving landscape ...

The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of the economy and policy objectives. Applying the tool to recent tariff ...

Labor productivity gains over the past three years helped the U.S. economy expand steadily, even with near-zero employment growth. Combined with substantially increased business investment in ...

U.S. business spending related to artificial intelligence (AI) grew substantially in 2025 among publicly traded firms, which account for the bulk of overall investment. Analyzing sentiment data from ...

Adam Shapiro, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of April 16, 2026. Oil markets ...

Understanding housing demand dynamics through two indicators, income growth and population growth, provides important insights into housing affordability. Research shows that average U.S. income ...