Fed, Treasury and rates
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Oil, treasury yields
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The 10-year Treasury yield has popped up above 5% in each of the past two days. Many investors are probably wondering if it can stay above that level, and if so, for how long. If recent history is any guide,
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Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets
Oil and 10-year Treasury yields are moving in near lockstep, with their correlation at its strongest since 2019.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.045% intraday, handily surpassing its 2023 peak to hit its highest level since 2007.
Treasury yields are hitting their highest levels in years, pushing up mortgage rates and borrowing costs while creating new risks for stocks.
Ed Yardeni slashes his S&P 500 year-end target to 7,900, citing Treasury yields hitting 5% and Middle East tensions raising recession odds to 30%.
Treasury yields haven’t been this high in years — and the fiscal math gets uglier the longer they stay there.
Long Treasury yields just hit levels not seen since 2007, and the usual rescue plan from the Fed is nowhere on the horizon. Understanding why this time is structurally different matters for anyone still holding duration as a bet on rate cuts.
What happened: The 10-year Treasury yield ( ^TNX) climbed as high as 5.04%, its highest level since 2007, on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury ( ^TYX) yield touched 5.39%.