Commercial banks have led the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in recent years. Evidence suggests that banks using AI ...

We construct a new high-frequency measure of risk appetite shifts around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, the common component of changes in risk-sensitive indicators. Fed policy actions ...

Rapid advances in emerging technologies are reshaping both how consumer fraud and scams unfold and how institutions detect and respond to these risks. These dynamics carry particular consequences for ...

Huiyu Li, research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of September 3, 2026. The U.S.

Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) reported either using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), revealing a rapidly evolving landscape ...

According to household surveys, inflation expectations tend to move together with expectations for gasoline price changes. The relationship is not symmetrical, though: Inflation expectations rise when ...

Following decades of secular decline, many estimates of r∗—the natural or steady-state short-term real interest rate—have risen roughly 1 percentage point since 2020 in the United States. The most ...

Most housing research relies on a single-margin model where a single housing price relates to a single housing quantity. We generalize this approach by introducing income inequality and housing ...

Since employment dynamics are persistent, a central bank’s dual mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability naturally generates history dependence in monetary policy. This history ...