Global stock markets faced an air pocket on Monday, leading investors to rely on the "Sahm rule," a highly accurate recession indicator, to assess whether the U.S. economy is in recession. The Sahm ...

Sahm was the economist who introduced the so-called Sahm Rule in 2019. It states that the initial phase of a recession has started when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate is ...

Former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm views a rate hike as the “appropriate policy” for the Fed’s meeting next week, as she is “no longer confident” inflation will return to 2% without it.

Analysts' favorite gauge of the U.S. economy's health comes from data. And at the moment, the numbers look okay…ish. Hiring is down, but unemployment hasn't spiked. Inflation isn't ballooning (as ...

Even economist Claudia Sahm admits that her namesake recession indicator isn’t always a guarantee that the economy is headed toward a downturn. Sahm, an economist who previously worked at the Federal ...

October's unemployment rate set off alarm bells in some quarters. That's because it was a half percentage point higher than its recent low — a jump that by one rule of thumb signals the onset of a ...

Rogoff is right that the Fed should not spit in Trump’s face, but he’s wrong that it should let politics affect its decisions ...