We study how the U.S.-China trade war has reshaped global trade patterns, creating significant spillovers to third countries. Using recent tariff policy changes and monthly international trade flow ...

We study how firms’ orientation toward employee well-being shapes the health of their workers. Because this orientation is not directly observable, we measure it from the language Danish firms use in ...

We measure the convenience yield on dollar safe assets over the last 5 years to answer this question. We find that within the set of U.S. dollar assets, safe asset convenience yields are about the ...

We study the 2026 U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, which occurred amid a nationwide anti-government uprising. Combining high-frequency geocoded data on protests with geocoded records of U.S.–Israeli ...

Motivated by William Julius Wilson’s account of concentrated disadvantage, we examine a local poverty-trap interpretation of low entrepreneurship in Black neighborhoods. Using registration data from ...

We investigate how limiting interest deductibility under the 2017 TCJA shapes corporate innovation. Using alternative identification strategies, we show that, relative to unaffected firms, affected ...

This paper uses the history of private money to assess the conditions under which stablecoins could function safely at scale and what their growth may imply for U.S. monetary power. Historical systems ...

Probabilistic expectation questions are often used to measure subjective uncertainty, but respondents frequently assign all probability to one outcome. We show that this bunching is partly a survey ...

We explore the historical link between populist regimes, fiscal monetization, and inflation, and how these links affect monetary policy in the 21st century. Using data for a large set of advanced ...

How do patent rights affect innovation and downstream production? Patent protection was introduced for plant biotechnology in the United States in 1985, and it affected crops differentially depending ...

Do stimulus checks—one-off, deficit-financed lump-sum payments to households—boost the economy? We study a natural experiment: payments to U.S. veterans after World War II that mimic stimulus checks ...

We study the aggregate and heterogeneous effects of a front-of-package labeling policy implemented in Chile. We find that consumers reduced their sugar and caloric intake by 9% and 6%, respectively.