Among Americans overall, 63 percent say there’s at least a “moderate risk” of AI destroying humanity, versus just 22 percent ...

But mostly, they were extremely persistent, a word used multiple times in OpenAI’s own account of the incident. Like the ...

The first official episode of Still Counting is out! Clare, Galen, and I discussed the most competitive Senate races, the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention, Trump’s standing within the Republican ...

We’re approaching Labor Day — which has traditionally been considered the “real” starting point of midterm election campaigns. You’ll often hear a narrative that goes something like this: voters only ...

Back at the OG version of FiveThirtyEight.com in 2008, we ran a daily feature called “Today’s Polls”. It was pretty simple: basically a table of every poll that had entered our database in the past 24 ...

No, I’m not sure why the NFL is starting its season on a Wednesday. But I won’t complain because it should be a hell of a lot more fun than watching the Republican midterm convention. The NFL is back ...

Yesterday, the Missouri Supreme Court ruled that the state’s new congressional map — which likely would have flipped Kansas City’s Democratic 5th District red — could not be used in November. Instead, ...

I teased this last week, but I wanted to officially share the good news that I’m starting a podcast with my former FiveThirtyEight colleagues Galen Druke and Clare Malone. The podcast, Still Counting, ...

We’ve updated ELWAY and QBERT with Week 1 results. While individual game performance can be noisy, ELWAY tends to take early-season results seriously. NFL team rankings shift a lot year to year, and ...

This is the landing page for QBERT. As with our other landing pages, it’s best viewed on the web rather than over email or in the Substack App. The charts and tables will be updated regularly, and ...

Our midterms model, which we’re now calling FLIPR 🐬 — Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings — launched today! There’s a lot of detail both on the model landing page and in the ...