Hawaii is bracing for heavy rain and wind from Hurricane Nolo and Mexico is preparing for a hit from Hurricane Polo.

But even a strong El Niño isn’t a guarantee that Hawaii will see storms—after all, it’s a small area of land in a vast ocean, so it’s not an easy target to hit. The hurricane season of 2015 was exceptionally active because of a strong El Niño, but it just happened that only one storm came particularly close to the islands.

The major hurricane will be named Nolo once it forms and is set to pass by Hawaii in the coming days.

The exact track of newly reformed Tropical Depression 15-E currently has it heading directly toward the Big Island of Hawaii, before making a sharp turn to the west. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist